Amplifying the Prediction of Team Performance through Swarm Intelligence and Machine Learning

Modern companies are increasingly relying on groups of individuals to reach organizational goals and objectives, however many organizations struggle to cultivate optimal teams that can maximize performance. Fortunately, existing research has established that group personality composition (GPC), across five dimensions of personality, is a promising indicator of team effectiveness. Additionally, recent advances in technology have enabled groups of humans to form real-time, closed-loop systems that are modeled after natural swarms, like flocks of birds and colonies of bees. These Artificial Swarm Intelligences (ASI) have been shown to amplify performance in a wide range of tasks, from forecasting financial markets to prioritizing conflicting objectives. The present research examines the effects of group personality composition on team performance and investigates the impact of measuring GPC through ASI systems. 541 participants, across 111 groups, were administered a set of well-accepted and vetted psychometric assessments to capture the personality configurations and social sensitivities of teams. While group-level personality averages explained 10% of the variance in team performance, when group personality composition was measured through human swarms, it was able to explain 29% of the variance, representing a 19% amplification in predictive capacity. Finally, a series of machine learning models were applied and trained to predict group effectiveness. Multivariate Linear Regression and Logistic Regression achieved the highest performance exhibiting 0.19 mean squared error and 81.8% classification accuracy

Large-scale shock-ionized and photo-ionized gas in M83: the impact of star formation

We investigate the ionization structure of the nebular gas in M83 using the line diagnostic diagram, [O III](5007 \degA)/H{\beta} vs. [S II](6716 \deg A+6731 \deg A)/H{\alpha} with the newly available narrowband images from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We produce the diagnostic diagram on a pixel-by-pixel (0.2" x 0.2") basis and compare it with several photo- and shock-ionization models. For the photo-ionized gas, we observe a gradual increase of the log([O III]/H{\beta}) ratios from the center to the spiral arm, consistent with the metallicity gradient, as the H II regions go from super solar abundance to roughly solar abundance from the center out. Using the diagnostic diagram, we separate the photo-ionized from the shock-ionized component of the gas. We find that the shock-ionized H{\alpha} emission ranges from ~2% to about 15-33% of the total, depending on the separation criteria used. An interesting feature in the diagnostic diagram is an horizontal distribution around log([O III]/H{\beta}) ~ 0. This feature is well fit by a shock-ionization model with 2.0 Z\odot metallicity and shock velocities in the range of 250 km/s to 350 km/s. A low velocity shock component, < 200 km/s, is also detected, and is spatially located at the boundary between the outer ring and the spiral arm. The low velocity shock component can be due to : 1) supernova remnants located nearby, 2) dynamical interaction between the outer ring and the spiral arm, 3) abnormal line ratios from extreme local dust extinction. The current data do not enable us to distinguish among those three possible interpretations. Our main conclusion is that, even at the HST resolution, the shocked gas represents a small fraction of the total ionized gas emission at less than 33% of the total. However, it accounts for virtually all of the mechanical energy produced by the central starburst in M83.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. aastex preprint 12pt, 21 pages, 13 figure

In vivo hippocampal subfield volumes in bipolar disorder—A mega-analysis from The Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis Bipolar Disorder Working Group

The hippocampus consists of anatomically and functionally distinct subfields that may be differentially involved in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD). Here we, the Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta‐Analysis Bipolar Disorder workinggroup, study hippocampal subfield volumetry in BD. T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans from 4,698 individuals (BD = 1,472, healthy controls [HC] = 3,226) from 23 sites worldwide were processed with FreeSurfer. We used linear mixed‐effects models and mega‐analysis to investigate differences in hippocampal subfield volumes between BD and HC, followed by analyses of clinical characteristics and medication use. BD showed significantly smaller volumes of the whole hippocampus (Cohen's d = −0.20), cornu ammonis (CA)1 (d = −0.18), CA2/3 (d = −0.11), CA4 (d = −0.19), molecular layer (d = −0.21), granule cell layer of dentate gyrus (d = −0.21), hippocampal tail (d = −0.10), subiculum (d = −0.15), presubiculum (d = −0.18), and hippocampal amygdala transition area (d = −0.17) compared to HC. Lithium users did not show volume differences compared to HC, while non‐users did. Antipsychotics or antiepileptic use was associated with smaller volumes. In this largest study of hippocampal subfields in BD to date, we show widespread reductions in nine of 12 subfields studied. The associations were modulated by medication use and specifically the lack of differences between lithium users and HC supports a possible protective role of lithium in BD

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

SDSS-III: Massive Spectroscopic Surveys of the Distant Universe, the Milky Way Galaxy, and Extra-Solar Planetary Systems

Building on the legacy of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-I and II), SDSS-III is a program of four spectroscopic surveys on three scientific themes: dark energy and cosmological parameters, the history and structure of the Milky Way, and the population of giant planets around other stars. In keeping with SDSS tradition, SDSS-III will provide regular public releases of all its data, beginning with SDSS DR8 (which occurred in Jan 2011). This paper presents an overview of the four SDSS-III surveys. BOSS will measure redshifts of 1.5 million massive galaxies and Lya forest spectra of 150,000 quasars, using the BAO feature of large scale structure to obtain percent-level determinations of the distance scale and Hubble expansion rate at z<0.7 and at z~2.5. SEGUE-2, which is now completed, measured medium-resolution (R=1800) optical spectra of 118,000 stars in a variety of target categories, probing chemical evolution, stellar kinematics and substructure, and the mass profile of the dark matter halo from the solar neighborhood to distances of 100 kpc. APOGEE will obtain high-resolution (R~30,000), high signal-to-noise (S/N>100 per resolution element), H-band (1.51-1.70 micron) spectra of 10^5 evolved, late-type stars, measuring separate abundances for ~15 elements per star and creating the first high-precision spectroscopic survey of all Galactic stellar populations (bulge, bar, disks, halo) with a uniform set of stellar tracers and spectral diagnostics. MARVELS will monitor radial velocities of more than 8000 FGK stars with the sensitivity and cadence (10-40 m/s, ~24 visits per star) needed to detect giant planets with periods up to two years, providing an unprecedented data set for understanding the formation and dynamical evolution of giant planet systems. (Abridged)Comment: Revised to version published in The Astronomical Journa

Frequency drift in MR spectroscopy at 3T

Purpose: Heating of gradient coils and passive shim components is a common cause of instability in the B-0 field, especially when gradient intensive sequences are used. The aim of the study was to set a benchmark for typical drift encountered during MR spectroscopy (MRS) to assess the need for real-time field-frequency locking on MRI scanners by comparing field drift data from a large number of sites.Method: A standardized protocol was developed for 80 participating sites using 99 3T MR scanners from 3 major vendors. Phantom water signals were acquired before and after an EPI sequence. The protocol consisted of: minimal preparatory imaging; a short pre-fMRI PRESS; a ten-minute fMRI acquisition; and a long post-fMRI PRESS acquisition. Both pre- and post-fMRI PRESS were non-water suppressed. Real-time frequency stabilization/adjustment was switched off when appropriate. Sixty scanners repeated the protocol for a second dataset. In addition, a three-hour post-fMRI MRS acquisition was performed at one site to observe change of gradient temperature and drift rate. Spectral analysis was performed using MATLAB. Frequency drift in pre-fMRI PRESS data were compared with the first 5:20 minutes and the full 30:00 minutes of data after fMRI. Median (interquartile range) drifts were measured and showed in violin plot. Paired t-tests were performed to compare frequency drift pre- and post-fMRI. A simulated in vivo spectrum was generated using FID-A to visualize the effect of the observed frequency drifts. The simulated spectrum was convolved with the frequency trace for the most extreme cases. Impacts of frequency drifts on NAA and GABA were also simulated as a function of linear drift. Data from the repeated protocol were compared with the corresponding first dataset using Pearson's and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC).Results: Of the data collected from 99 scanners, 4 were excluded due to various reasons. Thus, data from 95 scanners were ultimately analyzed. For the first 5:20 min (64 transients), median (interquartile range) drift was 0.44 (1.29) Hz before fMRI and 0.83 (1.29) Hz after. This increased to 3.15 (4.02) Hz for the full 30 min (360 transients) run. Average drift rates were 0.29 Hz/min before fMRI and 0.43 Hz/min after. Paired t-tests indicated that drift increased after fMRI, as expected (p &lt; 0.05). Simulated spectra convolved with the frequency drift showed that the intensity of the NAA singlet was reduced by up to 26%, 44 % and 18% for GE, Philips and Siemens scanners after fMRI, respectively. ICCs indicated good agreement between datasets acquired on separate days. The single site long acquisition showed drift rate was reduced to 0.03 Hz/min approximately three hours after fMRI.Discussion: This study analyzed frequency drift data from 95 3T MRI scanners. Median levels of drift were relatively low (5-min average under 1 Hz), but the most extreme cases suffered from higher levels of drift. The extent of drift varied across scanners which both linear and nonlinear drifts were observed.</p

Rare X chromosome abnormalities in systemic lupus erythematosus and Sjögren's syndrome

Objective: Sjögren's syndrome (SS) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are related by clinical and serologic manifestations as well as genetic risks. Both diseases are more commonly found in women than in men, at a ratio of ~10 to 1. Common X chromosome aneuploidies, 47,XXY and 47,XXX, are enriched among men and women, respectively, in either disease, suggesting a dose effect on the X chromosome. Methods: We examined cohorts of SS and SLE patients by constructing intensity plots of X chromosome single-nucleotide polymorphism alleles, along with determining the karyotype of selected patients. Results: Among ~2,500 women with SLE, we found 3 patients with a triple mosaic, consisting of 45,X/46,XX/47,XXX. Among ~2,100 women with SS, 1 patient had 45,X/46,XX/47,XXX, with a triplication of the distal p arm of the X chromosome in the 47,XXX cells. Neither the triple mosaic nor the partial triplication was found among the controls. In another SS cohort, we found a mother/daughter pair with partial triplication of this same region of the X chromosome. The triple mosaic occurs in ~1 in 25,000–50,000 live female births, while partial triplications are even rarer. Conclusion: Very rare X chromosome abnormalities are present among patients with either SS or SLE and may inform the location of a gene(s) that mediates an X dose effect, as well as critical cell types in which such an effect is operative. © 2017, American College of Rheumatolog

Reproducibility in the absence of selective reporting: An illustration from large‐scale brain asymmetry research

The problem of poor reproducibility of scientific findings has received much attention over recent years, in a variety of fields including psychology and neuroscience. The problem has been partly attributed to publication bias and unwanted practices such as p‐hacking. Low statistical power in individual studies is also understood to be an important factor. In a recent multisite collaborative study, we mapped brain anatomical left–right asymmetries for regional measures of surface area and cortical thickness, in 99 MRI datasets from around the world, for a total of over 17,000 participants. In the present study, we revisited these hemispheric effects from the perspective of reproducibility. Within each dataset, we considered that an effect had been reproduced when it matched the meta‐analytic effect from the 98 other datasets, in terms of effect direction and significance threshold. In this sense, the results within each dataset were viewed as coming from separate studies in an “ideal publishing environment,” that is, free from selective reporting and p hacking. We found an average reproducibility rate of 63.2% (SD = 22.9%, min = 22.2%, max = 97.0%). As expected, reproducibility was higher for larger effects and in larger datasets. Reproducibility was not obviously related to the age of participants, scanner field strength, FreeSurfer software version, cortical regional measurement reliability, or regional size. These findings constitute an empirical illustration of reproducibility in the absence of publication bias or p hacking, when assessing realistic biological effects in heterogeneous neuroscience data, and given typically‐used sample sizes

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707